Hard Markets are on their way.

Economists at Swiss Reinsurance Co. are predicting that current financial market uncertainty is likely to continue well into 2010, and will lead to premium rate increases for insurance and reinsurance for several years to come.

Swiss Re predicted that there was a 70% chance of a deep global recession that would last until mid-2009, with continued volatility in credit and equity markets through to 2010, said Kurt Karl, the reinsurer's chief economist in the United States.

There is also a 25% chance that a severe recession—a mini depression that just falls short of the 1930s Great Depression—will last well into 2010, he added. Insurers are not immune from the crisis, according to Thomas Hess, Swiss Re’s chief economist in Zurich, Switzerland.

The insurance industry had combined $18 trillion invested assets worldwide at the end of 2007, but by September this year, nonlife insurers alone had lost 10%-15% of their shareholder equity. They also account for some $200 billion of the financial market’s total $40 trillion loss from subprime structured products, he added.

Should an insurer need to raise capital, the credit crunch would also be an issue, as it would prove difficult and expensive to raise capital and hedge against financial risks, Mr, Hess said.
Mr. Hess predicted that nonlife premium rates will rise in 2009, first for reinsurance and then for insurance. Price increases for reinsurance would result from higher demand for reinsurance at a time of reduced capacity, he added.

“There is a scarcity of risk capital, and so naturally the price of risk increases, including the price of reinsurance,” he said. “I expect prices in reinsurance to rise. It will take longer for primary insurance rates to increase, but they will also rise.”

Nonlife insurers could also take steps to improve their underwriting results, to compensate for lower investment returns, Mr. Hess said.
In a special report published Tuesday “Global Insura
nce Review 2008 and Outlook for 2009: Weathering the Storm,” Swiss Re said that refocusing on underwriting profitability was likely to lead to rate increases in lines where losses have been highest—including directors and officers, aviation, U.S. catastrophe and credit. In other lines, there will be an end to the decline on rates, it added.

“A general hardening of rates across all lines will be slow to emerge in the poor macroeconomic environment. However, the expectation for rate changes will be a shift away from softening to hardening in 2009, reflecting the increased cost of insurance production due to higher capital costs and lower investment returns